Best captain picks for Gameweek 38

Top captaincy options for Gameweek 38 ranked by expected points. Featuring Haaland, B.Fernandes, Gabriel.

The short version
  • Haaland (Man City) is the model's top captain at 6.7 xPts vs Aston Villa.
  • B.Fernandes is the safest alternative at 5.8 xPts.
  • Bruno G. is the differential play at just 6.2% ownership.
Top-10 avg xPts
5.2
Top-10 avg ownership
34.8%
Cheapest
Enzo (£6.4m)
Most expensive
Haaland (£14.7m)
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Our top captain
Haaland
6.7
xPts GW38
Man City · FWD · £14.7m · 64.4% owned
Fixture:
Aston Villa (H)

Top 8 captain candidates

#PlayerPricexPts GW38
1Haaland
Man City · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Forwards
£14.7m6.7
2B.Fernandes
Man Utd · MID
£10.4m5.8
3Gabriel
Arsenal · DEF
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Value
£7.3m5.7
4Enzo
Chelsea · MID
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Value
£6.4m4.8
5Thiago
Brentford · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Forwards
£7.3m4.7
6Semenyo
Man City · MID
£8.1m4.7
7Bruno G.
Newcastle · MID
£6.9m4.6
8Rice
Arsenal · MID
£7.2m4.5

Expected points (GW38)

PlayerxPts
Haaland6.7
B.Fernandes5.8
Gabriel5.7
Enzo4.8
Thiago4.7
Semenyo4.7
Bruno G.4.6
Rice4.5

How they compare

MetricHaalandB.FernandesGabriel
xPts1008785
Form8771100
Fixture10067100
Underlying1008117
Minutes9910091
Differential captain
Bruno G.
Newcastle · 4.6 xPts at just 6.2% ownership.

Head-to-head

What stands out

Haaland faces Aston Villa at home, where he often performs well. His expected points suggest he's the leading candidate. Fernandes is up against Brighton away. His expected points are lower, but Manchester United have a lot to play for. Gabriel plays Crystal Palace away. His expected points are similar to Fernandes, and Arsenal will aim to finish the gameweek strongly. Haaland appears to have the best points potential based on the data.

Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 20 May 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.