Best differential picks for Gameweek 38

Low-ownership, high-output players for Gameweek 38. Players owned by under 10% of managers ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • Bruno G. is the standout differential at 6.2% ownership and 4.6 xPts.
  • All picks here are owned by under 10% of managers.
Top-10 avg xPts
4.1
Top-10 avg ownership
5.6%
Cheapest
Flemming (£5.3m)
Most expensive
Mateta (£7.6m)
Always up to date
Live differentials tool — always up to date
Open
Our top pick
Bruno G.
4.6
xPts GW38
Newcastle · MID · £6.9m · 6.2% owned
Fixture:
Fulham (A)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW38
1Bruno G.
Newcastle · MID
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£6.9m4.6
2Welbeck
Brighton · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£6.4m4.4
3Gibbs-White
Nott'm Forest · MID
£7.5m4.3
4Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£7.6m4.2
5Richarlison
Spurs · FWD
Also in: Forwards
£6.4m4.2
6Flemming
Burnley · FWD
Also in: Forwards
£5.3m3.9
7Tavernier
Bournemouth · MID
£5.3m3.9
8Schade
Brentford · MID
£6.8m3.9
9Sarr
Crystal Palace · MID
£6.4m3.9
10Woltemade
Newcastle · FWD
£6.7m3.9
11E.Le Fée
Sunderland · MID
Also in: Value
£4.8m3.9
12Raúl
Fulham · FWD
£6.0m3.8

Expected points (GW38)

PlayerxPts
Bruno G.4.6
Welbeck4.4
Gibbs-White4.3
Mateta4.2
Richarlison4.2
Flemming3.9
Tavernier3.9
Schade3.9
Sarr3.9
Woltemade3.9

Ownership vs expected points

PlayerOwnership %xPts
Bruno G.6.24.6
Welbeck8.94.4
Gibbs-White7.54.3
Mateta8.54.2
Richarlison6.54.2
Flemming0.43.9
Tavernier4.33.9
Schade1.43.9
Sarr6.13.9
Woltemade6.43.9
E.Le Fée1.53.9
Raúl1.93.8

Top by position

MID
FWD

What stands out

Bruno Guimaraes offers goal threat and is on penalties, making him a strong differential pick. Welbeck faces a leaky defense and has a good underlying stats profile. Gibbs-White is on set pieces and his team has something to play for. Mateta's form and potential against a disinterested opponent stand out. Richarlison's recent form and attacking involvement make him an interesting, less-owned option.

Per-player notes
Bruno G.4.6 xPts, form 4.5, 5.5 ppg, 6.2% owned. xG 5.57 · xA 4.91 · ICT 201.
Welbeck4.4 xPts, form 3.8, 3.5 ppg, 8.9% owned. xG 12.36 · xA 1.39 · ICT 168.
Gibbs-White4.3 xPts, form 6.0, 5.0 ppg, 7.5% owned. xG 10.34 · xA 2.87 · ICT 234.
Mateta4.2 xPts, form 2.0, 3.5 ppg, 8.5% owned. xG 14.04 · xA 1.32 · ICT 146.
Richarlison4.2 xPts, form 5.5, 3.8 ppg, 6.5% owned. xG 8.58 · xA 1.37 · ICT 163.
Flemming3.9 xPts, form 2.5, 3.2 ppg, 0.4% owned. xG 7.82 · xA 0.39 · ICT 109.
Tavernier3.9 xPts, form 2.2, 3.8 ppg, 4.3% owned. xG 8.82 · xA 4.45 · ICT 192.
Schade3.9 xPts, form 2.0, 3.5 ppg, 1.4% owned. xG 11.17 · xA 2.05 · ICT 163.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 20 May 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.