XI Predictor

Best forwards for Gameweek 38

Top forwards for Gameweek 38 ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • • Haaland (Man City) tops the list at 6.7 xPts.
  • • Thiago and Calvert-Lewin round out the top 3.
Top-10 avg xPts
4.5
Top-10 avg ownership
17.8%
Cheapest
Flemming (£5.3m)
Most expensive
Haaland (£14.7m)
Our top pick
Haaland
6.7
xPts GW38
Man City · FWD · £14.7m · 64.4% owned
Fixture:
Aston Villa (H)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW38
1Haaland
Man City · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£14.7m6.7
2Thiago
Brentford · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£7.3m4.7
3Calvert-Lewin
Leeds · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Value
£5.8m4.5
4Welbeck
Brighton · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Differentials
£6.4m4.4
5Gyökeres
Arsenal · FWD
Also in: Top picks
£9.1m4.3
6Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Differentials
£7.6m4.2
7Richarlison
Spurs · FWD
Also in: Differentials
£6.4m4.2
8Watkins
Aston Villa · FWD
£8.7m4.1
9Bowen
West Ham · FWD
£7.7m4.1
10Flemming
Burnley · FWD
Also in: Differentials
£5.3m3.9

Expected points (GW38)

PlayerxPts
Haaland6.7
Thiago4.7
Calvert-Lewin4.5
Welbeck4.4
Gyökeres4.3
Mateta4.2
Richarlison4.2
Watkins4.1

Price vs expected points

PlayerPrice (£m)xPts
Haaland14.76.7
Thiago7.34.7
Calvert-Lewin5.84.5
Welbeck6.44.4
Gyökeres9.14.3
Mateta7.64.2
Richarlison6.44.2
Watkins8.74.1
Bowen7.74.1
Flemming5.33.9

What stands out

Haaland is the top pick due to his consistent scoring and Manchester City's strong attack, even if it's their last gameweek. Thiago offers good value with Brentford's attacking potential. Calvert-Lewin could be a differential if Leeds are fighting for survival, but his form is a concern. Welbeck represents a cheaper option with Brighton's attacking threat, though his minutes can be unpredictable.

Per-player notes
Haaland — 6.7 xPts, form 6.8, 6.8 ppg, 64.4% owned. xG 25.50 · xA 2.67 · ICT 302.
Thiago — 4.7 xPts, form 2.8, 4.8 ppg, 31.7% owned. xG 20.55 · xA 1.83 · ICT 255.
Calvert-Lewin — 4.5 xPts, form 5.5, 4.1 ppg, 13.5% owned. xG 15.09 · xA 1.05 · ICT 189.
Welbeck — 4.4 xPts, form 3.8, 3.5 ppg, 8.9% owned. xG 12.36 · xA 1.39 · ICT 168.
Gyökeres — 4.3 xPts, form 5.0, 3.6 ppg, 17.9% owned. xG 12.10 · xA 1.84 · ICT 155.
Mateta — 4.2 xPts, form 2.0, 3.5 ppg, 8.5% owned. xG 14.04 · xA 1.32 · ICT 146.
Richarlison — 4.2 xPts, form 5.5, 3.8 ppg, 6.5% owned. xG 8.58 · xA 1.37 · ICT 163.
Watkins — 4.1 xPts, form 6.8, 4.3 ppg, 13.4% owned. xG 14.16 · xA 1.17 · ICT 209.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 20 May 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.

More for Gameweek 38