Best defenders for Gameweek 38

Top defenders for Gameweek 38 ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • Gabriel (Arsenal) tops the list at 5.7 xPts.
  • Saliba and Guéhi round out the top 3.
Top-10 avg xPts
3.9
Top-10 avg ownership
20.1%
Cheapest
Van Hecke (£4.7m)
Most expensive
Gabriel (£7.3m)
Our top pick
Gabriel
5.7
xPts GW38
Arsenal · DEF · £7.3m · 46.1% owned
Fixture:
Crystal Palace (A)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW38
1Gabriel
Arsenal · DEF
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£7.3m5.7
2Saliba
Arsenal · DEF
Also in: Top picks · Free hit
£6.3m4.2
3Guéhi
Man City · DEF
Also in: Free hit · Value
£5.1m4.1
4Virgil
Liverpool · DEF
£6.0m3.8
5O'Reilly
Man City · DEF
£5.3m3.7
6Van Hecke
Brighton · DEF
Also in: Value
£4.7m3.5
7Thiaw
Newcastle · DEF
£4.9m3.5
8Senesi
Bournemouth · DEF
£5.2m3.4
9Truffert
Bournemouth · DEF
£4.7m3.4
10Tarkowski
Everton · DEF
£5.8m3.4

Expected points (GW38)

PlayerxPts
Gabriel5.7
Saliba4.2
Guéhi4.1
Virgil3.8
O'Reilly3.7
Van Hecke3.5
Thiaw3.5
Senesi3.4

Price vs expected points

PlayerPrice (£m)xPts
Gabriel7.35.7
Saliba6.34.2
Guéhi5.14.1
Virgil63.8
O'Reilly5.33.7
Van Hecke4.73.5
Thiaw4.93.5
Senesi5.23.4
Truffert4.73.4
Tarkowski5.83.4

What stands out

Gabriel and Saliba are great picks for the final gameweek. Arsenal are at home to Everton, who have a poor away record. Gabriel's attacking threat from set-pieces gives him a slight edge. Guéhi at home to Spurs is a good shout. Virgil faces Aston Villa away, which is a tougher fixture.

Per-player notes
Gabriel5.7 xPts, form 7.8, 6.7 ppg, 46.1% owned. xG 2.94 · xA 1.75 · ICT 124.
Saliba4.2 xPts, form 6.5, 4.4 ppg, 17.2% owned. xG 0.88 · xA 1.21 · ICT 84.
Guéhi4.1 xPts, form 5.6, 5.1 ppg, 32.8% owned. xG 4.05 · xA 2.37 · ICT 161.
Virgil3.8 xPts, form 5.2, 4.7 ppg, 30.5% owned. xG 3.70 · xA 1.27 · ICT 184.
O'Reilly3.7 xPts, form 2.8, 4.7 ppg, 19.6% owned. xG 6.12 · xA 2.67 · ICT 164.
Van Hecke3.5 xPts, form 4.0, 4.2 ppg, 10.9% owned. xG 3.31 · xA 1.53 · ICT 150.
Thiaw3.5 xPts, form 2.0, 3.7 ppg, 4.8% owned. xG 4.80 · xA 0.95 · ICT 137.
Senesi3.4 xPts, form 7.5, 4.8 ppg, 21.2% owned. xG 1.53 · xA 4.70 · ICT 166.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 20 May 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.