Best captain picks for Gameweek 1

Top captaincy options for Gameweek 1 ranked by expected points. Featuring Haaland, B.Fernandes, Gabriel.

The short version
  • • Haaland (Man City) is the model's top captain at 6.7 xPts vs Bournemouth.
  • • B.Fernandes is the safest alternative at 6.4 xPts.
  • • Gibbs-White is the differential play at just 11.5% ownership.
Top-10 avg xPts
5.3
Top-10 avg ownership
33.3%
Cheapest
João Pedro (£7.5m)
Most expensive
Haaland (£15.5m)
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Our top captain
Haaland
6.7
xPts GW1
Man City · FWD · £15.5m · 73.6% owned
Fixture:
Bournemouth (H)

Top 8 captain candidates

#PlayerPricexPts GW1
1Haaland
Man City · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Forwards
£15.5m6.7
2B.Fernandes
Man Utd · MID
£12.0m6.4
3Gabriel
Arsenal · DEF
£8.0m5.7
4João Pedro
Chelsea · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Forwards
£7.5m5.1
5Thiago
Brentford · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Free hit · Forwards
£8.0m4.8
6Gibbs-White
Nott'm Forest · MID
£8.0m4.8
7Watkins
Aston Villa · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£8.0m4.7
8Rice
Arsenal · MID
£7.5m4.5

Expected points (GW1)

PlayerxPts
Haaland6.7
B.Fernandes6.4
Gabriel5.7
João Pedro5.1
Thiago4.8
Gibbs-White4.8
Watkins4.7
Rice4.5

How they compare

MetricHaalandB.FernandesGabriel
xPts1009685
Form000
Fixture75100100
Underlying1008217
Minutes9610090
Differential captain
Gibbs-White
Nott'm Forest · 4.8 xPts at just 11.5% ownership.

Head-to-head

What stands out

Haaland is the clear favorite. His underlying numbers are always elite, and he faces a promoted side at home. Fernandes is a solid choice, especially if he plays a more advanced role. His assist potential is high. Gabriel is an interesting differential. Arsenal at home are usually dominant, offering him a chance for a clean sheet and potentially a headed goal.

Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 13 Aug 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.