XI Predictor

Best differential picks for Gameweek 1

Low-ownership, high-output players for Gameweek 1. Players owned by under 10% of managers ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • • Enzo is the standout differential at 5.5% ownership and 4.4 xPts.
  • • All picks here are owned by under 10% of managers.
Top-10 avg xPts
4.0
Top-10 avg ownership
3.4%
Cheapest
Martinez (£5.0m)
Most expensive
Enzo (£7.0m)
Always up to date
Live differentials tool — always up to date
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Our top pick
Enzo
4.4
xPts GW1
Chelsea · MID · £7.0m · 5.5% owned
Fixture:
Fulham (A)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW1
1Enzo
Chelsea · MID
Also in: Top picks · Midfielders
£7.0m4.4
2Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£6.5m4.4
3Schade
Brentford · MID
Also in: Value · Midfielders
£6.0m4.2
4Richarlison
Spurs · FWD
Also in: Forwards
£6.0m4.2
5Sarr
Crystal Palace · MID
£6.5m4.0
6Barnes
Newcastle · MID
£6.0m3.9
7Tavernier
Bournemouth · MID
£6.0m3.8
8O.Dango
Brentford · MID
£6.5m3.8
9Martinez
Aston Villa · GKP
Also in: Value · Goalkeepers
£5.0m3.7
10Minteh
Brighton · MID
£6.0m3.7
11Wilson
Leeds · MID
£6.5m3.7
12A.Becker
Liverpool · GKP
Also in: Goalkeepers
£5.5m3.7

Expected points (GW1)

PlayerxPts
Enzo4.4
Mateta4.4
Schade4.2
Richarlison4.2
Sarr4.0
Barnes3.9
Tavernier3.8
O.Dango3.8
Martinez3.7
Minteh3.7

Ownership vs expected points

PlayerOwnership %xPts
Enzo5.54.4
Mateta6.64.4
Schade24.2
Richarlison24.2
Sarr84
Barnes1.23.9
Tavernier1.83.8
O.Dango1.43.8
Martinez4.93.7
Minteh0.73.7
Wilson83.7
A.Becker43.7

Top by position

GKP
MID
  • Enzo — 4.4 xPts · Chelsea
  • Schade — 4.2 xPts · Brentford
  • Sarr — 4.0 xPts · Crystal Palace
  • Barnes — 3.9 xPts · Newcastle
FWD

What stands out

Enzo and Mateta look like strong differential picks for the first gameweek, with both showing a good underlying points projection. Schade and Richarlison are also intriguing options for those looking for real value, despite their low ownership. Sarr offers a slightly more popular differential choice with a solid expected points return.

Per-player notes
Enzo — 4.4 xPts, form 0.0, 4.4 ppg, 5.5% owned. xG 11.26 · xA 7.26 · ICT 265.
Mateta — 4.4 xPts, form 0.0, 3.6 ppg, 6.6% owned. xG 14.42 · xA 1.32 · ICT 151.
Schade — 4.2 xPts, form 0.0, 3.6 ppg, 2.0% owned. xG 12.08 · xA 2.05 · ICT 173.
Richarlison — 4.2 xPts, form 0.0, 3.7 ppg, 2.0% owned. xG 8.64 · xA 1.46 · ICT 165.
Sarr — 4.0 xPts, form 0.0, 4.2 ppg, 8.0% owned. xG 10.93 · xA 1.17 · ICT 135.
Barnes — 3.9 xPts, form 0.0, 2.9 ppg, 1.2% owned. xG 6.84 · xA 2.72 · ICT 147.
Tavernier — 3.8 xPts, form 0.0, 4.0 ppg, 1.8% owned. xG 9.06 · xA 4.60 · ICT 208.
O.Dango — 3.8 xPts, form 0.0, 4.2 ppg, 1.4% owned. xG 7.94 · xA 4.12 · ICT 163.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 13 Aug 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.

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