XI Predictor

Best defenders for Gameweek 1

Top defenders for Gameweek 1 ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • • Gabriel (Arsenal) tops the list at 5.7 xPts.
  • • Guéhi and Virgil round out the top 3.
Top-10 avg xPts
3.8
Top-10 avg ownership
15.1%
Cheapest
Van Hecke (£5.0m)
Most expensive
Gabriel (£8.0m)
Our top pick
Gabriel
5.7
xPts GW1
Arsenal · DEF · £8.0m · 26.9% owned
Fixture:
Coventry City (H)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW1
1Gabriel
Arsenal · DEF
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£8.0m5.7
2Guéhi
Man City · DEF
Also in: Free hit
£6.0m4.1
3Virgil
Liverpool · DEF
Also in: Free hit
£6.5m3.7
4O'Reilly
Man City · DEF
£6.5m3.7
5Lacroix
Chelsea · DEF
£6.0m3.5
6Senesi
Spurs · DEF
£6.0m3.5
7Tarkowski
Everton · DEF
£6.0m3.4
8Matheus N.
Man City · DEF
£6.0m3.4
9Van Hecke
Spurs · DEF
£5.0m3.3
10Calafiori
Arsenal · DEF
£5.5m3.2

Expected points (GW1)

PlayerxPts
Gabriel5.7
Guéhi4.1
Virgil3.7
O'Reilly3.7
Lacroix3.5
Senesi3.5
Tarkowski3.4
Matheus N.3.4

Price vs expected points

PlayerPrice (£m)xPts
Gabriel85.7
Guéhi64.1
Virgil6.53.7
O'Reilly6.53.7
Lacroix63.5
Senesi63.5
Tarkowski63.4
Matheus N.63.4
Van Hecke53.3
Calafiori5.53.2

What stands out

Gabriel was the top-scoring defender in the gameweek based on expected points, suggesting he had a strong performance. Guéhi and O'Reilly of Man City also showed good potential, with Virgil of Liverpool close behind. These players represent strong options for defensive scoring in the upcoming gameweeks.

Per-player notes
Gabriel — 5.7 xPts, form 0.0, 6.5 ppg, 26.9% owned. xG 2.94 · xA 1.75 · ICT 125.
Guéhi — 4.1 xPts, form 0.0, 5.1 ppg, 22.9% owned. xG 4.05 · xA 2.37 · ICT 161.
Virgil — 3.7 xPts, form 0.0, 4.6 ppg, 16.7% owned. xG 3.77 · xA 1.44 · ICT 188.
O'Reilly — 3.7 xPts, form 0.0, 4.7 ppg, 22.3% owned. xG 6.12 · xA 2.67 · ICT 164.
Lacroix — 3.5 xPts, form 0.0, 4.4 ppg, 11.4% owned. xG 2.45 · xA 0.83 · ICT 124.
Senesi — 3.5 xPts, form 0.0, 4.7 ppg, 10.3% owned. xG 1.53 · xA 4.72 · ICT 169.
Tarkowski — 3.4 xPts, form 0.0, 4.6 ppg, 9.7% owned. xG 2.53 · xA 2.10 · ICT 166.
Matheus N. — 3.4 xPts, form 0.0, 4.5 ppg, 4.7% owned. xG 0.34 · xA 2.23 · ICT 138.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 13 Aug 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.

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