Top XI Predictor picks for Gameweek 1

The 15 highest-rated players to start in Gameweek 1 ranked by expected points across all positions.

The short version
  • • Haaland leads with 6.7 xPts in GW1.
  • • The top 5 average 5.7 xPts.
  • • Cheapest in the top 15 is Calvert-Lewin at £6.0m.
Top-10 avg xPts
5.2
Top-10 avg ownership
30.5%
Cheapest
Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m)
Most expensive
Haaland (£15.5m)
Our top pick
Haaland
6.7
xPts GW1
Man City · FWD · £15.5m · 73.6% owned
Fixture:
Bournemouth (H)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW1
1Haaland
Man City · FWD
Also in: Captains · Free hit · Forwards
£15.5m6.7
2B.Fernandes
Man Utd · MID
£12.0m6.4
3Gabriel
Arsenal · DEF
Also in: Captains · Free hit · Defenders
£8.0m5.7
4João Pedro
Chelsea · FWD
Also in: Captains · Free hit · Forwards
£7.5m5.1
5Thiago
Brentford · FWD
Also in: Captains · Free hit · Forwards
£8.0m4.8
6Gibbs-White
Nott'm Forest · MID
£8.0m4.8
7Watkins
Aston Villa · FWD
Also in: Captains · Forwards
£8.0m4.7
8Rice
Arsenal · MID
£7.5m4.5
9Gyökeres
Arsenal · FWD
Also in: Forwards
£7.5m4.5
10Calvert-Lewin
Leeds · FWD
Also in: Value · Forwards
£6.0m4.5
11Semenyo
Man City · MID
Also in: Free hit · Midfielders
£8.5m4.5
12Raya
Arsenal · GKP
Also in: Free hit · Value · Goalkeepers
£6.0m4.4
13Enzo
Chelsea · MID
£7.0m4.4
14Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
£6.5m4.4
15Mbeumo
Man Utd · MID
Also in: Midfielders
£8.0m4.4

Expected points (GW1)

PlayerxPts
Haaland6.7
B.Fernandes6.4
Gabriel5.7
João Pedro5.1
Thiago4.8
Gibbs-White4.8
Watkins4.7
Rice4.5
Gyökeres4.5
Calvert-Lewin4.5

Price vs expected points

PlayerPrice (£m)xPts
Haaland15.56.7
B.Fernandes126.4
Gabriel85.7
João Pedro7.55.1
Thiago84.8
Gibbs-White84.8
Watkins84.7
Rice7.54.5
Gyökeres7.54.5
Calvert-Lewin64.5
Semenyo8.54.5
Raya64.4
Enzo74.4
Mateta6.54.4
Mbeumo84.4

Best by price bracket

£5.5–8.0m
£8.0–10.5m
Over £10.5m

What stands out

Haaland led the way in expected points, showing his typical scoring threat. B. Fernandes was also high, indicating good creative potential. Gabriel offered defensive solidity with an eye for attacking contributions. João Pedro and Thiago provided value from forward positions, suggesting they could be good budget options. These players showed promise for strong performances in the gameweek.

Per-player notes
Haaland — 6.7 xPts, form 0.0, 6.8 ppg, 73.6% owned. xG 25.50 · xA 2.67 · ICT 302.
B.Fernandes — 6.4 xPts, form 0.0, 6.7 ppg, 48.2% owned. xG 10.79 · xA 12.28 · ICT 381.
Gabriel — 5.7 xPts, form 0.0, 6.5 ppg, 26.9% owned. xG 2.94 · xA 1.75 · ICT 125.
João Pedro — 5.1 xPts, form 0.0, 5.1 ppg, 55.8% owned. xG 14.91 · xA 1.96 · ICT 212.
Thiago — 4.8 xPts, form 0.0, 4.8 ppg, 16.0% owned. xG 20.60 · xA 1.83 · ICT 257.
Gibbs-White — 4.8 xPts, form 0.0, 5.1 ppg, 11.5% owned. xG 10.81 · xA 2.91 · ICT 243.
Watkins — 4.7 xPts, form 0.0, 4.5 ppg, 12.7% owned. xG 15.40 · xA 1.18 · ICT 225.
Rice — 4.5 xPts, form 0.0, 5.1 ppg, 21.9% owned. xG 3.15 · xA 7.32 · ICT 215.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 13 Aug 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.