XI Predictor

Best forwards for Gameweek 1

Top forwards for Gameweek 1 ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • • Haaland (Man City) tops the list at 6.7 xPts.
  • • João Pedro and Thiago round out the top 3.
Top-10 avg xPts
4.6
Top-10 avg ownership
20.9%
Cheapest
Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m)
Most expensive
Haaland (£15.5m)
Our top pick
Haaland
6.7
xPts GW1
Man City · FWD · £15.5m · 73.6% owned
Fixture:
Bournemouth (H)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW1
1Haaland
Man City · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£15.5m6.7
2João Pedro
Chelsea · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£7.5m5.1
3Thiago
Brentford · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks · Free hit
£8.0m4.8
4Watkins
Aston Villa · FWD
Also in: Captains · Top picks
£8.0m4.7
5Gyökeres
Arsenal · FWD
Also in: Top picks
£7.5m4.5
6Calvert-Lewin
Leeds · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Value
£6.0m4.5
7Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Differentials
£6.5m4.4
8Richarlison
Spurs · FWD
Also in: Differentials
£6.0m4.2
9Woltemade
Newcastle · FWD
£6.0m3.7
10Welbeck
Chelsea · FWD
£6.0m3.6

Expected points (GW1)

PlayerxPts
Haaland6.7
João Pedro5.1
Thiago4.8
Watkins4.7
Gyökeres4.5
Calvert-Lewin4.5
Mateta4.4
Richarlison4.2

Price vs expected points

PlayerPrice (£m)xPts
Haaland15.56.7
João Pedro7.55.1
Thiago84.8
Watkins84.7
Gyökeres7.54.5
Calvert-Lewin64.5
Mateta6.54.4
Richarlison64.2
Woltemade63.7
Welbeck63.6

What stands out

Haaland is the clear top forward based on expected points for the gameweek. He faces a favourable fixture. João Pedro is a surprisingly high second choice, offering potential value. Thiago and Watkins are closely ranked, both offering solid options for their teams, though with slightly lower expected points.

Per-player notes
Haaland — 6.7 xPts, form 0.0, 6.8 ppg, 73.6% owned. xG 25.50 · xA 2.67 · ICT 302.
João Pedro — 5.1 xPts, form 0.0, 5.1 ppg, 55.8% owned. xG 14.91 · xA 1.96 · ICT 212.
Thiago — 4.8 xPts, form 0.0, 4.8 ppg, 16.0% owned. xG 20.60 · xA 1.83 · ICT 257.
Watkins — 4.7 xPts, form 0.0, 4.5 ppg, 12.7% owned. xG 15.40 · xA 1.18 · ICT 225.
Gyökeres — 4.5 xPts, form 0.0, 3.6 ppg, 13.1% owned. xG 12.26 · xA 1.94 · ICT 158.
Calvert-Lewin — 4.5 xPts, form 0.0, 4.1 ppg, 25.1% owned. xG 15.57 · xA 1.06 · ICT 195.
Mateta — 4.4 xPts, form 0.0, 3.6 ppg, 6.6% owned. xG 14.42 · xA 1.32 · ICT 151.
Richarlison — 4.2 xPts, form 0.0, 3.7 ppg, 2.0% owned. xG 8.64 · xA 1.46 · ICT 165.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 13 Aug 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.

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