Best differential picks for Gameweek 37

Low-ownership, high-output players for Gameweek 37. Players owned by under 10% of managers ranked by expected points.

The short version
  • Bruno G. is the standout differential at 5.2% ownership and 4.6 xPts.
  • All picks here are owned by under 10% of managers.
Top-10 avg xPts
4.1
Top-10 avg ownership
5.7%
Cheapest
Tavernier (£5.4m)
Most expensive
Mateta (£7.6m)
Always up to date
Live differentials tool — always up to date
Open
Our top pick
Bruno G.
4.6
xPts GW37
Newcastle · MID · £6.8m · 5.2% owned
Fixture:
West Ham (H)

Full ranking

#PlayerPricexPts GW37
1Bruno G.
Newcastle · MID
£6.8m4.6
2Mateta
Crystal Palace · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£7.6m4.5
3Welbeck
Brighton · FWD
Also in: Top picks · Forwards
£6.4m4.4
4Schade
Brentford · MID
Also in: Midfielders
£6.8m4.1
5Richarlison
Spurs · FWD
Also in: Forwards
£6.4m4.1
6Sarr
Crystal Palace · MID
Also in: Midfielders
£6.4m4.0
7Raúl
Fulham · FWD
£6.0m3.9
8Woltemade
Newcastle · FWD
£6.7m3.9
9Tavernier
Bournemouth · MID
£5.4m3.8
10Casemiro
Man Utd · MID
£5.9m3.8
11Martinez
Aston Villa · GKP
Also in: Goalkeepers
£5.1m3.7
12Minteh
Brighton · MID
£5.5m3.7

Expected points (GW37)

PlayerxPts
Bruno G.4.6
Mateta4.5
Welbeck4.4
Schade4.1
Richarlison4.1
Sarr4.0
Raúl3.9
Woltemade3.9
Tavernier3.8
Casemiro3.8

Ownership vs expected points

PlayerOwnership %xPts
Bruno G.5.24.6
Mateta9.24.5
Welbeck9.64.4
Schade1.44.1
Richarlison6.24.1
Sarr6.94
Raúl1.93.9
Woltemade6.43.9
Tavernier4.93.8
Casemiro5.43.8
Martinez4.73.7
Minteh2.53.7

Top by position

GKP
MID
  • Bruno G.4.6 xPts · Newcastle
  • Schade4.1 xPts · Brentford
  • Sarr4.0 xPts · Crystal Palace
  • Tavernier3.8 xPts · Bournemouth
FWD

What stands out

Bruno Guimaraes is the clear standout differential for the gameweek. His underlying numbers, as shown by his xPts, suggest he has a strong chance of scoring well. Jean-Philippe Mateta and Danny Welbeck also show promise, with similar xPts to Bruno G. Although a bit lower, their ownership suggests they could offer good value. Less compelling are Schade and Richarlison. Their xPts are lower, making them riskier choices compared to the others.

Per-player notes
Bruno G.4.6 xPts, form 3.8, 5.5 ppg, 5.2% owned. xG 5.48 · xA 4.55 · ICT 196.
Mateta4.5 xPts, form 1.8, 3.7 ppg, 9.2% owned. xG 14.04 · xA 1.28 · ICT 144.
Welbeck4.4 xPts, form 3.8, 3.5 ppg, 9.6% owned. xG 12.15 · xA 1.38 · ICT 165.
Schade4.1 xPts, form 2.5, 3.5 ppg, 1.4% owned. xG 10.96 · xA 2.05 · ICT 162.
Richarlison4.1 xPts, form 3.8, 3.7 ppg, 6.2% owned. xG 7.70 · xA 1.32 · ICT 151.
Sarr4.0 xPts, form 2.8, 4.3 ppg, 6.9% owned. xG 9.91 · xA 1.06 · ICT 124.
Raúl3.9 xPts, form 1.2, 3.2 ppg, 1.9% owned. xG 11.44 · xA 0.90 · ICT 153.
Woltemade3.9 xPts, form 1.0, 3.2 ppg, 6.4% owned. xG 6.39 · xA 1.30 · ICT 103.
Glossary
xPts
Expected points: our model's forecast for the player's next gameweek score.
FDR
Fixture difficulty rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).
xG / xA / xGI
Expected goals, expected assists, and the sum (expected goal involvements).
ICT
The Influence-Creativity-Threat composite published with official data.
Ownership
Percent of managers who currently own the player.
Form
Recent points-per-match average over the last several matches.
xPts/£m
Expected points produced per £1m of price — our value score.
Snapshot taken 12 May 2026
Picks are deterministic from a snapshot of player news, prices, fixtures, and form at publish time. The model blends Expected Points (xPts) with fixture difficulty, expected minutes, and bonus likelihood. Read the full methodology.